Gaza One Year Later: What Are the Future Scenarios?

The Gaza conflict devastates lives and infrastructure, causing mass displacement, food insecurity, and a collapse of essential services. 

 The impact of war often extends far beyond the immediate destruction, as evidenced by the ongoing conflict in Gaza. This crisis is not only devastating the region's infrastructure but also severely undermining the socioeconomic conditions of its population. A fragile education system, a collapsing healthcare sector, diminished social services, strained environmental conditions, and a faltering economy are all dramatically altering the lives of thousands.

 

A Year of War

The toll on the population is staggering, with 41,534 Palestinians reported killed and 96,092 injured. Yet, the effects extend beyond the loss of life. A remarkable 86% of Gazans have faced evacuation orders, leading to 1.9 million internally displaced people. Food insecurity has also become a critical issue, with 96% of the population—around 2.15 million people—experiencing acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3). Even more alarming, 22% of the population, or approximately 495,000 individuals, are now living under catastrophic conditions (IPC Phase 5).

The destruction of both physical and human capital has been equally severe. Recent figures show that 151,265 structures have been damaged, 60% of buildings and 57% of agricultural lands have been destroyed, and 67% of water and sanitation facilities have suffered damage. The financial toll of these losses amounts to an estimated $18.5 billion, equivalent to 97% of the combined GDP of the West Bank and Gaza. Human capital has also been ravaged, with what some describe as a “scholasticide” occurring—92.2% of schools have been damaged, leaving 625,000 students without access to education.

The healthcare system has been similarly crippled. Over 986 healthcare workers have lost their lives, and 492 attacks on health facilities have been recorded. This has left over 500,000 women without essential services and caused an 86% drop in vaccination rates, alongside other severe consequences.

The war has not spared the economic sector either. In 2023 alone, Gaza lost 60% of its productive capital, leading to a dramatic drop in total factor productivity. Unemployment has skyrocketed to 49.9%, and the Human Development Index (HDI) for Palestine is expected to fall to 0.643. The Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) has also worsened, with multidimensional poverty rates doubling from 24.1% in 2017 to 55.4% in 2024. Depending on future scenarios, the indices could either stabilize or worsen further.

 

The Scenarios

In their third edition of the Socio-Economic Impact Assessment (SEIA), the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) examined post-war scenarios based on expected figures.

  1. No Early Recovery (NER): This scenario limits economic growth to just 2%, with GDP projected to fall by 34% by 2034 compared to pre-war trends. Unemployment is expected to reach 55%, and the construction sector could see a 70% decline.
  2. Restricted Early Recovery (RER): In this scenario, $280 million would be allocated for immediate recovery needs, but this would be insufficient for long-term recovery. GDP is still expected to fall by 33%, with minimal improvements in poverty and unemployment rates similar to the NER scenario.
  3. Non-Restricted Early Recovery (NRER): This approach envisions an additional $290 million being invested annually for recovery efforts, alongside the initial $280 million. In this scenario, productivity would increase by 1% annually, and improvements in poverty reduction and unemployment are expected, with unemployment potentially falling to 26%.

 

The Path to Recovery

A successful recovery will require a multifaceted approach, integrating humanitarian aid and long-term reconstruction programs. Priority must be given to four key objectives: the early restoration of jobs, improved access to socioeconomic services, expanded protection services, and mitigating the war’s impact on the environment. Strategic resource allocation and comprehensive planning will be essential to effectively address the diverse needs of Gaza’s recovery.

 

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by Camilla Levis 

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